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☆ UK economy slipped into technical recession at the end of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy slipped into a technical recession in the final quarter of last year, initial figures showed Thursday. Though there is no official definition of a recession, two straight quarters of negative growth is widely considered a technical recession. Across the whole of 2023, the British GDP is estimated to have increased by just 0.1%, compared to 2022. "These factors affected the performance of the services and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the U.K. "Over the coming months, we expect inflation to fall, potentially easing the pressure on U.K. households, and supporting the recovery of the consumer-driven economy," Brookes added.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Neil Birrell Organizations: National Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Bank of England, Bank of England's, Quilter Investors, Premier Miton Investors Locations: British

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. That was a relief to financial markets, roiled in recent weeks by a surge in government bond yields led by U.S. Treasuries. The central bank reiterated it would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under its 1.7 trillion euro pandemic-era bond scheme until the end of 2024. Instead, the ECB kept the emphasis on slowing inflation, raising investors' conviction that September's rate rise was the central bank's last. And inflation risks have not disappeared.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Gabriele Foa, reinvestments, Marcus Brookes, Sabrina Kanniche, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, Nick Zieminski Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, U.S, Treasuries, Reuters, Danske Bank, The Bank of, Algebris, Quilter Investors, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, Copenhagen, Israel, The Bank of Canada, wean, Ukraine

☆ UK inflation holds steady for September after Bank of England pauses rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September, slightly ahead of expectations and unchanged from the previous month. For August, the U.K. consumer price index surprised with a dip to 6.7%, below expectations, which sparked the Bank of England to end a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes. The bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August. The market is pricing around a 77% chance that the Bank holds rates steady again at its next meeting on November 2nd. For now, the higher for longer interest rate narrative will continue to persist," he said Wednesday in an emailed note.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Hetal Mehta, BoE Organizations: LONDON, Reuters, National Statistics, Chancellor, Bank of, Bank, Quilter Investors, Bank of England's, Bank of England Locations: Canary, London, Bank of England, British, James's

☆ Bank of England ends run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after cooler-than-expected inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday ended a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after new data showed inflation is now running below expectations. Investors on Wednesday ramped up bets that the Bank would pause its interest rate hiking cycle after U.K. inflation came in significantly below expectations for August. Thomas Verbraken, executive director of risk management research at MSCI, said the burning question is whether the Bank of England's Thursday decision signals the peak of the interest rate cycle. Forward looking indicators suggest the U.K. economy is already flirting with recession, a backdrop consistent with cooling wage growth and a policy pivot," Mehdi said.

Persons: BOE, Andrew Bailey, We'll, Marcus Brookes, BoE, Brookes, Thomas Verbraken, Hussain Mehdi, Mehdi Organizations: Bank of England, City of, LONDON, Bank, U.S, Monetary, MPC, Quilter Investors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England's, HSBC Asset Management, Bank of, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: City, City of London, Bank of England's

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."

Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S

☆ UK inflation exceeds expectations in May, piling pressure on the government and Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year. Inflation dipped below 10% in April but continues to exceed consensus forecasts and remains significantly higher than the Bank of England 's 2% target. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), the ONS' preferred metric, rose by 7.9% in the 12 months to May 2023, up from 7.8% in April. LONDON — U.K. inflation came in hotter than expected in May, as consumer prices rose by an annual 8.7%, unchanged from the previous month. However, he said the Bank will now "feel like it has no choice, especially with core inflation now rising again."

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Thiru Organizations: OECD, Bank of England, ONS, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, LONDON, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development, CPI, Quilter Investors, Bank Locations: Sheffield

☆ Britain's new 'winter of discontent' deepens as widespread strikes mount over festive period
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In recent weeks, upcoming strike actions have been announced by nurses, rail workers, postal workers, ambulance workers, airport staff, Border Force agents, highway workers, Eurostar staff, civil servants, bus drivers, firefighters, charity workers, meteorologists and offshore workers. For the public sector, real earnings were 5 percentage points lower, and Hollingsworth suggested that the growing gap had become "unsustainable." "I think there's clearly a lot of pressure here for some catch-up on the public sector side of things, and it's clear that there is that labor bargaining power there." "However, the gap between private and public sector pay narrowed slightly, with private sector pay up 6.9%, while public sector pay is up by 2.7%." However, with negotiations remaining fraught and unions showing no signs of backing down, he said some catch-up on public sector pay growth will likely be required to prevent further disruption.

☆ Instant View: UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt outlines budget
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Much of Hunt's budget had been widely expected, meaning markets offered a muted reaction. Sterling fell against the dollar, while UK government bond prices also eased, but remained clear of the day's lows. FOREX: Sterling fell 0.9% against the dollar to $1.1809 from $1.1845 prior to the budget. MARCUS BROOKES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT QUILTER INVESTORS, LONDON:"Today’s Autumn Statement has painted a bleak picture for the UK... Markets originally reacted well to the steady hand of Jeremy Hunt. SIMON HARVEY, HEAD OF FX ANALYSIS, MONEX EUROPE, LONDON:"The austerity’s going to be welcome (to the Bank of England) purely because there’s going to be less support for UK consumers.

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